Possible line-ups

Crystal Palace: Speroni, Ward, Delaney, Dann, Kelly, Puncheon, McArthur, Jedinak, Zaha, Chamakh, Campbell.

Liverpool: Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Lovren, Manquillo, Gerrard, Allen, Lallana, Coutinho, Lambert.

Liverpool return to Selhurst Park on Sunday in he Premier League, where the Reds let slip a 3-o lead last season it what was the beginning of the end of their title challenge.

Crystal Palace fans will be hoping their side will be able to pick up three valuable points against the Merseysiders, knowing Liverpool are bringing a team without much confidence to south London.

Mario Balotelli, after going to boxing on Saturday night, is expected to be out of the team, while Daniel Sturridge is again a long term absentee too. Brendan Rodgers will either player Rickie Lambert or Fabio Borini up front.

Of course, Liverpool bigger problems this season have been at the back where the likes of Glen Johnson continue to look like a liability.

As for Palace, Neil Warnock may have concerns over captain Mile Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie after both players travelled long distances over the recent international break.

Our prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – Liverpool 3

Essential facts and stats to help with online betting

Crystal Palace have failed to win their last 5 matches in the Premier League.

Crystal Palace are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Liverpool in all competitions.

Liverpool are winless in three Premier League matches (D1, L2) for the second time this season.

‘Own goals’ is the joint Liverpool top scorer along with Raheem Sterling (3).

“It is a natural human characteristic to get away with putting in very little effort.”

You can’t just spend 10 minutes looking at the Racing Post, or pick the same selection as your favourite tipster and expect to win long-term. Racing is a complex sport. You need to invest time initially and at the very least learn the fundamentals in order to gain an edge over 95% of punters. After all if it was that easy every man and his dog would be making a mint from the horses.

The main difference between punters who profit regularly from racing and those that don’t is….

Successful punters invest lots of time and energy into learning what works, and just as importantly they know what to avoid. There are many strategies that you can use to profit from racing. The key to success is learning to know which strategies to employ on which types of races.

To help you I’ve listed a few examples of the more obvious mistakes made by the majority of punters when selecting a horse to bet on.

• Following hype horses.
• Following trainer – jockey – Blindly
• Following tipsters – Blindly
• Backing or laying Favourites – Blindly

Other crucial factors most punters ignore are changes in the going, and the effect a non-runner can have on the potential outcome of a race.

Overview

Bayern have made another brilliant start to their season, unbeaten in the league and in Europe and will be looking to extend their run with a win over their decorated rivals. The Bavarians are currently four points clear at the top after nine games, having won six and drawn three, 14 points clear of Dortmund who are struggling to recreate their form from recent years.

The tension between the teams will be at a maximum owing to Bayern CEO Karl-Heinz Rummenigge’s comments on Marco Reus stating that the German champions may be potentially interested in matching his buy-out clause which kicks in next year.

The 25-year-old has been stricken with injuries for the major part of the year and missed the World Cup, but will be looking to dispel doubts over his allegiance in the coming game.

Bayern have already got the better of Dortmund with signings of Mario Gotze and Robert Lewandowski in consecutive years, a move which has tilted the balance in their favour. Jurgen Klopp will be hoping to throw a proper reply when the teams meet, having lost six of their opening nine games and languishing in 15th spot with only seven points.

Their Champions League form has been exemplary, winning three of three including a proper battering of Arsenal at home in their first game. Injuries have played a major role but the likes of Ilkay Gundogan and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have been deemed fit for the game, which shall give the contest a more even setting.

What Managers Say

Pep Guardiola: “At this moment, Dortmund are still the biggest rival,” the Catalan told reporters on Friday. “The points difference means nothing in October. I don’t analyse the table. In my opinion this is a great team, no matter in what kind of situation they are right now. We’ll play against the best BVB. This is a special match because the opponent is very, very, very good. Also, our way of playing is excellent for them as we defend 40 metres in front of [goalkeeper] Manuel Neuer. But I won’t change my tactics. I have always played my teams very far forward – ever since my first day at Barcelona B.”

Jurgen Klopp: “I believe life is fair and if you misbehave while you are successful, you will get it back one day. When both teams are at the top, it can also be fun to react to those things, but currently that’s just not part of it.”

Betting Odds(by 888Sport.com)

Bayern Win: 7/15
Draw: 7/2
Dortmund Win: 23/4

Team Guide

Bayern Munich

Last Five(most recent first): W D W W W
Last Result: Hamburger SV 1-3 Bayern Munich

Borussia Dortmund

Last Five(most recent first): W L W L L
Last Result: FC St. Pauli 0-3 Borussia Dortmund

Team News

Bayern Munich

Injured: Schweinsteiger(knee), Badstuber(thigh), Martinez(knee), Alcantara(knee), Reina(calf)
Doubtful: Ribery(knee)

Possible XI: Neuer; Benatia, Boateng, Alaba; Rafinha, Lahm, Alonso, Bernat; Muller, Gotze; Lewandowski

Borussia Dortmund

Injured: Durm(thigh), Sahin(knee)

Possible XI: Weidenfeller; Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Sokratis; Bender, Gundogan; Mkhitaryan, Kagawa, Reus; Aubamayeng

A betting system strategy, which allows you to earn a lot of money without taking a risk to your bank.

Like the title says – we’ll bet on Over 0,5 goals on a football (soccer) game. It means, at least one goal has to be scored by one of the teams. Only a 0-0 goalless draw destroys the winning sequence. If you choose your games carefully, you can easily get 30 or 60 rounds and that’s what we’re aiming for.

The system is played on BETFAIR – the betting exchange on in-play games – meaning – during the game. There is no need to learn trading or any other Betfair secrets, a simple bet placing is enough. (click here to read the complete Betfair tutorial)

The reason to play on Betfair is simple – the market is available on every game, the liquidity and the odds for this market are high.

First, set a stake to start with. No need for huge amounts, 2€ or 10€ will be enough.

Second – find a game which you’re confident will not end with a 0-0 draw. If you’re not very familiar with soccer, you may also use our sports predictions. As soon as the game is marked for Over 1,5 – this game qualifies for this system.

Third – choose the Over 0.5 goals market, or Total Goals market.

Sometimes, the Over/under 0.5 market has more money available for betting than the Total goals market and vice versa. Check them both out.

Also – the Over/Under market pays out winnings within minutes after a goal is scored, while on Total Goals Market, the game needs to end before the winnings are paid out.

You decide which one you’ll use, both mean the same – at least one goal in the game.

This is the option you’re looking for. 1 goal or more. As you can see – at the moment, there is not much activity, only 77Gbp available to bet on, but this brings us to our next important point:

Now you have several options when to start.

• If you’re aiming for an early goal – you want to place your bet as soon as the game starts. Our tip – the odds for Over 1 goal should be at least 1.11! Do not place bets before that. If an early goal surprises you, too bad, move on to the next game. You have to keep in mind that Betfair also takes 5% commission of your winnings, so wait for 1.11 (at least!) as we really don’t want to place anything below 1.10.
• You can also wait up to 30 minutes as the majority of goals are scored after this time. This will increase the odds even further.
• The next thing you can do is – wait for the first half to end without goals and place the bet during halftime! This will boost the odds above 1,20 and increase the winnings.

You decide what works best for you!

Let’s take a look, what you can win with this strategy with your 10€ stake.

If you placed your bets at estimated odds of 1.10, 30 consecutive wins will make your stake x 17.

10€ x 17 = 170€!

If you placed your bets at around 1.20, 30 consecutive wins will make – your stake x 237!

10€ x 237 = 2.370€!

As you can see, it’s worth taking a look at this progressive betting system strategy.

Choose your games carefully, only the one’s that are meant to get Over, are suitable for this system. And don’t forget – play on Betfair to take advantage of huge odds and market liquidity.

How can you profit betting on the number of red and yellow cards issued in a football match? Today on the blog Alex Lee tells us how to bet on bookings.

The key to successful sports betting is in gaining a regular edge over the bookmakers which will culminate in consistent profits. If you can have a little bit of fun along the way then that’s a huge bonus. Certain types of alternative markets, such as the ‘cards market’ in football, fall squarely into both categories and are therefore worthy of serious consideration.

The football cards market isn’t, as the name might suggest, a massive trading post where people meet up to swap their stickers or play Top Trumps. It’s actually a type of bet where using skill, judgement and ability to correctly extrapolate the relevant information, you can make financial gain by predicting how many cards will be shown in any given game, which player or players are most likely to end up in the referee’s little black book or which side will amass the most bookings.

There are five fundamental factors to take into consideration before placing any cards market bet. These are as follows:

#1 – The Referee

While it’s ever-more fashionable to berate referees and bang on about how much technological help they need, be it in the form of vanishing spray, goal-line technology or indeed a brand new pair of spectacles, knowledge is power when it comes to assessing how strict or how lenient each ref is. There are several useful resources for ascertaining a ref’s harshness, such as soccerbase.com, statbunker.com, guardian.touch-line.com and so on. These and others are handy to assess referees’ form in terms of their previous ‘card history’ which are vital tools in predicting the frequency of yellow and red cards.

Examples of Premier League card-happy refs: Kevin Friend, Mike Dean, Phil Dowd

#2 – The Diver

The cliché ‘make the ref make a decision’ is applied to that master of the theatrical fall, the diver. The more divers picked for a match, the higher the number of cards dealt out will be. Put it this way, if the diver is successful, he will get his opponent booked. If unsuccessful, it is almost equally as likely that he will be on the receiving end of a card.

Obviously, the English Premier League’s most persistent diver, a certain Mr Luis Suarez, no longer plies his trade in the UK, but there are plenty more players who fit the bill. Arguably (and sadly) there is at least one diver in every Premier League first eleven these days as divers are an essential part of all clubs in the age of ‘the best con artist wins’.

Examples of Premier League divers: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool), Emanuel Adebayor (Tottenham), Ashley Young (Manchester United)

#3 – The Local Derby

Derby matches turn even the most mild-mannered players – and fans – into total lunatics for the days leading up to the game and the 90 minutes plus stoppages (for pitch invasions) on match day. Inevitably, cards are rife in derby matches and although the odds often shorten as a result, there is nothing wrong in backing what virtually amounts to a sure thing. Can you really imagine a Celtic/Rangers match, for example, without any bookings?

Factor in which ref has been assigned to preside over the fighting in the event a football match might break out at some point. Some refs, although they are admittedly a dying breed, enjoy the thud and blunder of a derby match and will go to great lengths not to get their book out until someone is virtually decapitated.

Examples of ‘heated’ Premier League derby matches: Newcastle v Sunderland, Aston Villa v West Brom, Arsenal v Tottenham, Manchester City v Manchester United, Everton v Liverpool.

#4 – The Niggler

Like the diver, all top professional football clubs have at least one niggler. You know the one. He’s the player who always pulls shirts, trips opponents up, argues with the ref and generally does everything in his power to get booked, despite his coach claiming that he’s a reformed character and is showing a ‘new found maturity’. Identify the nigglers before you make your cards market selection and consider yourself to be first in line at the payout queue if both sides happen to have three or four nigglers in their ranks.

Examples of nigglers: Joey Barton (Queens Park Rangers), Sebastien Larsson, Lee Cattermole (both Sunderland), Cheick Tiote (Newcastle)

#5 – The Strong Centre Half

Inevitably, the strong centre half will have to ‘take one for the team’ from time to time in order to stop the opposition striker having a clear run on goal. There are several strong centre halves plying their trade in the Premier League at present and if there happens to be four of them on the pitch at any given time you might want to turn away as the carnage unfolds.

I got a question on twitter regarding an old blogpost from last year about calculating what the odds should be after first set and how to calculate it.

The question I got was instead of having the pre-match odds @ 2.00 for both players. “Lasse” wanted to know how the math is done for a 1.60-2.67 match. So I had a look at the card for the day to have an example. Tonight David Goffin plays versus Jerzy Janowicz. The odds on betfair when I write this is now @ 1.65-2.54 which is close to what we want to calculate here. To make it easy we use “Lasse’s” prices.

So this is basic probability calculations and in theory what the price “should” be after first set. You have always consider if the match was rightfully priced from the beginning and what is happening during the first set.

Anyways, here goes…

Lets start to look at what the market is giving us for probability for each player winning the match.

David Goffin (favorite): 1.60 -> 1/1.60= 63% (0.63) – So the favorite is priced to have a 63% chance of winning the match. Now its easy to calculate the chances for the underdog.

Jerzy Janowicz (underdog): 100%-63% = 37% (0.37)

So we assume that each player have the same chance of winning a set, and now that we have probabilities for winning the match its pretty easy to get the theoretical set prices for both players. This is probably where the “mindf*ck” part comes into it but its easy when you know how to do it. Ill skip the probability mumbojumbo and just go straight into how to calculate it.

Lets assume that Goffin wins first set. To calculate his set price, we calculate Janowicz chances of winning the match first from being behind a set. This means what are Janowicz chances of winning two straight sets.

37%*37% (0.37*0.37) = 0.1367 = 13.7%

If we subtract 13.7% from 100% -> 86.3% (0.863) (This is Goffins chance of winning the match after he won first set)

And to get this into odds form -> 1/0.863 = 1.16

“Lack of discipline will undermine your progress”

Why do most punters still lose even when they use a good racing system patiently? They lack the discipline to follow the system religiously to the letter. The one thing all good systems have in common is a clear set of rules to follow, leaving you no room to second guess your decisions, or even worse let the element of human emotion get involved.

Emotion will undermine your long term plan. Now I’m not suggesting that you have to have a heart of stone to succeed, but if something doesn’t fit the criteria of the systems rules, then it’s a no bet, simple as that. The minute you cross the line and ignore the rules you will lose money and that’s a fact.

A professional punter has clear, concise rules that he follows religiously, that is what separates him from the losing punters. If a system has been proven to work long-term stick to it and don’t make any changes. Unless in a rare situation when something in racing changes, which makes a particular rule redundant.

On occasions we will all suffer from the odd lapse of discipline; after all we are only human not machines; but be aware of these errors of judgment. Betting regularly on the wrong type of horses being talked up by the racing journalists is the quickest way to the poor house.

When it does happen don’t punish yourself learn from it and move on. Ignore hype and rumour about horses, sometimes it is justified but usually not. If you stray once too often it can leave holes in your betting bank, and also lead to bad habits creeping back in.

Most popular tournaments broadly covered by major online sportsbooks include:

• Olympic Games. Handball at the 2008 Summer Olympics enjoyed massive popularity among bettors. Handball has been an Olympic discipline since 1972, but the turning point on handball betting popularity came much later, at the Athens 2004 Olympic Games.
• The World Men’s Handball Championship. This premier international handball event is organised by the International Handball Federation since 1938. It is played biennially and enjoys a high profile in Continental Europe. The 2011 World Men’s Handball Championship will be held in Sweden in January, while the 2013 World Men’s Handball Championship will be held in Sweden.
• The EHF Champions League. Europe’s regional men’s handball tournament oraganized by the European Handball Federation.

The European Men’s Handball Championship. This biannual tournament is played by Europe’s top national men’s handball teams which also fulfils the function of a qualifying tournament for the World Championships. The 2012 EHF European Men’s Handball Championship will be held in Serbia in January. The 2014 EHF European Men’s Handball Championship (11th tournament) will be held in Denmark in January.
The EHF Cup Winners Cup. Annual competition for men’s and women’s clubs of Europe that won their domestic cups.
Domestic league handball betting. Probably the strongest handball league is the German Bundesliga and among top online sportsbooks it receives the widest betting coverage. Spanish Liga ASOBAL is also very popular choice for bettors

Handball Bet Types

• Match betting – predicting which team will win the match (usually with the additional draw outcome)
• Half-time match betting – predicting which team will lead after the half-time
• Handicap betting – in this bet type, the team which the sportsbook considered weaker is given a handicap in the form of goals, so that for the sake of the bet, the odds on both teams are close to equal – the odds on the favourite rise, the odds on the underdog fall.

Over / Under Goal betting – predicting whether the total number of goals in the match will be over or under the value set by odds-makers.

Other bets:

• Will the total number of goals be odd or even?
• Will the total number of goals in the 1st half be odd or even?
• Will the total number of goals in the 2nd half be odd or even?
• Will more goals be scored in the 1st or 2nd half?

Most punters are greedy; this greed clouds their view of what to realistically expect in return from bets. They spend virtually no time on the selection process, and are falsely overconfident considering they lack the knowledge needed to back up their decisions. They either back big prices, or odds-on shots mostly because of their attachment to money, or don’t see that these bets realistically have no chance of being successful with any consistency.

Their obsession with money means that they don’t look any further than the 15/1 shot winning them £75 off their £5 stake, or the odds-on dead cert that can’t lose.

You should be positive in your decision to place a bet, but don’t be greedy! Only expect to win long-term if you follow a good plan and execute discipline at all times. Being greedy will lead to failure and wipe out any money that you have built up. More importantly it will damage any faith or belief you had to succeed.

Punters that lose on a regular basis always try to regain their losing stake money regardless of a suitable opportunity being available. This crazy action usually causes them to lose even more money. Irrational behaviour of this kind can easily be rectified if simple logic and common sense are applied.

What they fail to realise is tomorrow is another day and there is racing seven days a week in the UK. There will be plenty more opportunities to profit from, but not necessarily on the same day. Patience, observation and planning will regain the winning thread sooner if not later.

There is no such thing as “Bad Luck” really as studies of self-made millionaires have proven. In one of those studies the most successful people were asked why they were so fortunate, nearly all of them replied; the best definition of luck is…

“Preparation meeting opportunity”

Have the patience to learn a skill properly – build your profits gradually, and only increase your stakes once you have gained confidence in your ability and reached a higher level of skill.

To summarize greed:

Don’t behave carelessly and chase losses. If you do it won’t take too long for your betting bank to be seriously depleted, or even worse wiped out. Be warned, if on any day’s betting, AFTER YOU HAVE PLACED ALL YOUR BETS you still incur losses. See it as a temporary hitch on the way to your long-term profit goals; stop and walk away until the next day. Professional punters may only find three or four bets a week on occasions, but they will be very strong bets indeed.

Napoli is one of those teams that really frustrates me. Seems like any time I put action on them they disappoint me in the worst possible way. 17 shots and 1 late goal for example.

This time v Empoli though I think they get us to 4 goals.

More teams are breathing down their back and their need to win is greater. I expect a great performance.

They are 4-2 over 2.5 in their 6 home games with 3 of those games seeing 6 or more combined goals. Their last home game was a 3-3 draw v Cagliari.

If there is worry its that Empoli is 4-2 under in 6 road games but they have conceded in 5 of them including 2 twice and 3 once. Also they have scored in 5 of their 6 road games including 5 straight.

4 of Napoli’s last 5 at home v Bottom 6 teams have seen at least 3 goals with two seeing 6 goals. Their last 3 home games v promoted clubs were 4-0 and 5-1 wins with a 3-3 draw most recently v Palermo on match day 2.

Napoli average 22 shots at goal at home and concede 11. Empoli concede 14.5 shots against on average away from home so I expect many chances in this game.

Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 10 home games and with Empoli expected to go up top in their favorite 4-3-1-2 formation I expect chances at both ends with the net filled at least 4 times. Napoli’s weakness is defense (conceding 16 goals in 13 matches).